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Stock Market Low Very Close

SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014-16.

SPX: Long-term trend - The probability that the bull market which started in March 2009 may have ended when the SPX reached 1370 on 5/02/11 has increased, but remains unconfirmed.

SPX: Intermediate trend - The recent action has eliminated the possibility of a triangle pattern for the correction. The choice is now between the first down-wave of a new bear market, or a deep correction in the form of an irregular flat.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends .

Among stock market analysts, the discussion now centers around whether the bull market has ended, or if this is just a severe intermediate correction. The truth of the matter is that, at best, one can make an educated guess (or just a plain guess), but only the market itself knows what comes next, and it is not quite ready to reveal its intentions.

The matter is really quite simple. In order to confirm that it is in a bear market, the SPX would have to make a lower low by dropping below the July 1, 2010 low of 1011 -- even if it does not do it right away. It could have a rally that fails to make a new high, with the next decline breaking below 1011.

So, how close to a low are we in the current decline? From a structural standpoint, it is likely that Friday's drop to 1168 was the end of the move which started at 1347, and that the rally which ensued is a prelude to the final down leg from 1356. This down leg has a Fibonacci projection to 1143, and a Point & Figure target (based on the amount of distribution that occurred between July 7 and July 26) between 1158 and 1123. The different levels are the result of taking two separate counts, one using a 3-point chart and the other a 1-point chart. Since the Fibonacci projection is right in the middle, we can assume with a reasonable degree of certainty that this area is where the decline will end. 1150 is another important projection which is derived from the H&S top. Although not infallible, these predictions are based on proven methods with a high degree of reliability, so we should include them in our overall analysis.

Free Crochet Tote Bag Patterns ~ Most Popular Articles - Free ...

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